Abstract

In this report, we use a detailed simulation model to assess and project the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida. The model is a data-driven, stochastic, discrete-time, agent based model with an explicit representation of people and places. Using the model, we find that the omicron variant wave in Florida is likely to cause many more infections than occurred during the delta variant wave. Due to testing limitations and often mild symptoms, however, we anticipate that omicron infections will be underreported compared to delta. We project that reported cases of COVID-19 will continue to grow significantly and peak in early January 2022, and that the number of reported COVID-19 deaths due to omicron may be 1/3 of the total caused by the delta wave.