Abstract Fluctuating environmental pressures can challenge organisms by repeatedly shifting the optimum phenotype. Two contrasting evolutionary strategies to cope with these fluctuations are 1) evolution of the mean phenotype to follow the optimum (adaptive tracking) or 2) diversifying phenotypes so that at least some individuals have high fitness in the current fluctuation (bet-hedging). Bet-hedging could underlie stable differences in the behavior of individuals that are present even when genotype and environment are held constant. Instead of being simply ‘noise,’ behavioral variation across individuals may reflect an evolutionary strategy of phenotype diversification. Using geographically diverse wild-derived fly strains and high-throughput assays of individual preference, we tested whether thermal preference variation in Drosophila melanogaster could reflect a bet-hedging strategy. We also looked for evidence that populations from different regions differentially adopt bet-hedging or adaptive-tracking strategies. Computational modeling predicted regional differences in the relative advantage of bet-hedging, and we found patterns consistent with that in regional variation in thermal preference heritability. In addition, we found that temporal patterns in mean preference support bet-hedging predictions and that there is a genetic basis for thermal preference variability. Our empirical results point to bet-hedging in thermal preference as a potentially important evolutionary strategy in wild populations.

Wild flies hedge their thermal preference bets in response to seasonal fluctuations