Abstract Recent advances in fluorescence microscopy have made it possible to measure the fluctuations of nascent (actively transcribed) RNA. These closely reflect transcription kinetics, as opposed to conventional measurements of mature (cellular) RNA, whose kinetics is affected by additional processes downstream of transcription. Here, we formulate a stochastic model which describes promoter switching, initiation, elongation, premature detachment, pausing, and termination while being analytically tractable. By computational binning of the gene into smaller segments, we derive exact closed-form expressions for the mean and variance of nascent RNA fluctuations in each of these segments, as well as for the total nascent RNA on a gene. We also derive exact expressions for the first two moments of mature RNA fluctuations, and approximate distributions for total numbers of nascent and mature RNA. Our results, which are verified by stochastic simulation, uncover the explicit dependence of the statistics of both types of RNA on transcriptional parameters and potentially provide a means to estimate parameter values from experimental data.

Statistics of nascent and mature RNA fluctuations in a stochastic model of transcriptional initiation, elongation, pausing, and termination