Abstract

Global food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change-induced losses to production can occur directly, or indirectly, including via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that temperature-dependent infection risk, r(T), for 80 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will track projected yield changes in 12 crops over the 21st Century. For most crops, both yields and r(T) are likely to increase at high latitudes. In contrast, while the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, r(T) is also likely to decline. In addition, the USA, Europe and China may experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. The benefits of yield gains may therefore be tempered by the increased burden of crop protection due to increased and unfamiliar pathogens.