Abstract Autism spectrum disorders have been proposed to arise from impairments in the probabilistic integration of prior knowledge with sensory inputs. Circular inference is one such possible impairment, in which excitation-to-inhibition imbalances in the cerebral cortex cause the reverberation and amplification of prior beliefs and sensory information. Recent empirical work has associated circular inference with the clinical dimensions of schizophrenia. Inhibition impairments have also been observed in autism, suggesting that signal reverberation might be present in that condition as well. In this study, we collected data from 21 participants with diagnosed autism spectrum disorders and 155 participants with a broad range of autistic traits in an online probabilistic decision-making task (the fisher task). We used previously established Bayesian models to investigate possible associations between autism or autistic traits and circular inference. No differences in prior or likelihood reverberation were found between autistic participants and those with no diagnosis. Similarly, there was no correlation between any of the circular inference model parameters and autistic traits across the whole sample. Furthermore, participants incorporated information from both priors and likelihoods in their decisions, with no relationship between their weights and psychiatric traits, contrary to what common theories for both autism and schizophrenia would suggest. These findings suggest that there is no increased signal reverberation in autism, despite the known presence of excitation-to-inhibition imbalances. They can be used to further contrast and refine the Bayesian theories of schizophrenia and autism, revealing a divergence in the computational mechanisms underlying the two conditions. Author Summary Perception results from the combination of our sensory inputs with our brain’s previous knowledge of the environment. This is usually described as a process of Bayesian inference or predictive coding and is thought to underly a multitude of cognitive modalities. Impairments in this process are thought to explain various psychiatric disorders, in particular autism and schizophrenia, for which similar Bayesian theories have been proposed despite important differences in their symptoms. Recently, a new model of Bayesian impairment in schizophrenia has been proposed and validated using behavioural experiments, called the “circular inference” model. In the current study, we used the same task and computational modelling to explore whether circular inference could also account for autism spectrum disorder. We find that participants with autistic traits or diagnoses of autism do not present increased levels of circularity. This is the first study to investigate circular inference in autism, and one of the very few to explore possible autism and schizophrenia impairments with the same task and identical analytical methods. Our findings indicate one potential way in which the explanations of the two conditions might differ.

No increased circular inference in autism or autistic traits