Abstract

BackgroundCorrectly classifying early estrogen receptor-positive and HER2-negative (ER+/HER2) breast cancer (EBC) cases allows to propose an adapted adjuvant systemic treatment strategy. We developed a new AI-based tool to assess the risk of distant relapse at 5 years for ER+/HER2-EBC patients from pathological slides. Patients and MethodsThe discovery dataset (GrandTMA) included 1429 ER+/HER2-EBC patients, with long-term follow-up and an available hematoxylin-eosin and saffron (HES) whole slide image (WSI). A Deep Learning (DL) network was trained to predict metastasis free survival (MFS) at five years, based on the HES WSI only (termed RlapsRisk). A combined score was then built using RlapsRisk and well established prognostic factors. A threshold corresponding to a probability of MFS event of 5% at 5 years was applied to dichotomize patients into low or high-risk groups. The external validation, as well as assessment of the additional prognosis value of the DL model beyond standard clinico-pathologic factors were carried out on an independent, prospective cohort (CANTO, NCT01993498) including 889 HES WSI of ER+/HER2-EBC patients. ResultsRlapsRisk was an independent prognostic factor of MFS in multivariable analysis adjusted for established clinico-pathological factors (p<0.005 in GrandTMA and CANTO). Combining RlapsRisk score and the clinico-pathological factors improved the prognostic discrimination as compared to the clinico-pathological factors alone (increment of c-index in the validation set 0.80 versus 0.76, +0.04, p-value < 0.005). After dichotomization, the Combined Model showed a higher cumulative sensitivity on the entire population (0.76 vs 0.61) for an equal dynamic specificity (0.76) in comparison with the clinical score alone. ConclusionsOur deep learning model developed on digitized HES slides provided additional prognostic information as compared to current clinico-pathological factors and has the potential of valuably informing the decision making process in the adjuvant setting when combined with current clinico-pathological factors.