Abstract

We present an analysis of 15 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at redshift z > 1 (9 at 1.5 1.5 leads to a factor of ~3 improvement in the determination of the expansion rate at z = 1.5, reducing its uncertainty to ~20%, a measurement of H(z=1.5)/H0=2.67 (+0.83,-0.52). We then demonstrate that these six measurements alone provide a nearly identical characterization of dark energy as the full SN sample, making them an efficient compression of the SN Ia data. The new sample of SNe Ia at z > 1 usefully distinguishes between alternative cosmological models and unmodeled evolution of the SN Ia distance indicators, placing empirical limits on the latter. Finally, employing a realistic simulation of a potential WFIRST SN survey observing strategy, we forecast optimistic future constraints on the expansion rate from SNe Ia.