Abstract

Whales are long-lived, slow-reproducing species that were decimated by commercial whaling. Although some populations seem close to recovery, others are challenging to assess. We studied humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine, an area of the North Atlantic (NA) with well-documented threats. Long-term studies and mark-recapture data were used to estimate humpback whale apparent survival, abundance and population growth from 2000 through 2019. Estimates were derived from a hierarchical, Bayesian state-space model with sex, age, and random time effects on survival while accounting for individual capture probability. Abundance increased from 744 (95% CI: 726-762) in 2000 to 1,706 (95% CI: 1,639-1,771) in 2019, with 4.6% mean annual growth. However, adult males exhibited higher survival and outnumbered adult females by the end of the study. Over time, fewer calves were observed, calf survival varied and the juvenile class declined. These are rare insights into the dynamics underlying whale abundance trends and they revealed similarities to an endangered species that is declining due to environmental and human impacts. The results inform a listing change under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a mortality event of unprecedented magnitude off the U.S and humpback whale recovery from historical whaling in the NA.