Mangroves are among the most carbon-rich ecosystems in the world. However, they have experienced widespread loss due to climate change and have been reclaimed for coastal cropland and aquaculture ponds. Studying the impact of climate change on the potential distribution and carbon benefits of mangroves is crucial for their conservation and restoration. Currently, there is limited research on the potential distribution of mangroves in China under future climate change scenarios using ensemble models. Furthermore, there is a relative scarcity of studies that apply simulation results to the restoration and protection of mangroves. Therefore, based on 15 dominant mangrove species, we constructed high-precision species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of mangroves in China during the current period (1981–2010) and predicted their potential distribution under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in the late 21st century (2071–2100). Our study showed that 1) the four most crucial drivers of mangrove suitability in China are: air temperature in the coldest quarter, sea surface temperature range, isothermality, and annual precipitation amount. 2) mangroves tend to expand northward by 2–2.5 degrees of latitude in the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, the potential distribution of Spartina alterniflora is expected to expand rapidly and pose a significant competitive threat to native mangrove species; 3) by restoring coastal cropland and aquaculture ponds to mangroves in the potential mangrove distribution area, the potential carbon stocks of mangroves would increase by 178.22–296.44 % and 170.31–277.13 % compared to the current carbon stocks of mangroves, the annual blue carbon would increase by 242.64–262.70 % compared to the current blue carbon of mangroves. Our research could provide valuable information for the future conservation and restoration of mangroves in China.

Simulating potential impacts of climate change on the habitats and carbon benefits of mangroves in China