Learning the statistical structure of the environment is crucial for adaptive behavior. Humans and non-human decision-makers seem to track such structure through a process of probabilistic inference, which enables predictions about behaviorally relevant events. Deviations from such predictions cause surprise, which in turn helps improve inference. Surprise about the timing of behaviorally relevant sensory events drives phasic responses of neuromodulatory brainstem systems, which project to the cerebral cortex. Here, we developed a computational model-based magnetoencephalography (MEG) approach for mapping the resulting cortical transients across space, time, and frequency, in the human brain (N=28, 17 female). We used a Bayesian ideal observer model to learn the statistics of the timing of changes in a simple visual detection task. This model yielded quantitative trial-by-trial estimates of temporal surprise. The model-based surprise variable predicted trial-by-trial variations in reaction time more strongly than the externally observable interval timings alone. Trial-by-trial variations in surprise were negatively correlated with the power of cortical population activity measured with MEG. This surprise-related power suppression occurred transiently around the behavioral response, specifically in the beta frequency band. It peaked in parietal and prefrontal cortices, remote from the motor cortical suppression of beta power related to overt report (button press) of change detection. Our results indicate that surprise about sensory event timing transiently suppresses ongoing beta-band oscillations in association cortex. This transient suppression of frontal beta-band oscillations might reflect an active reset triggered by surprise, and is in line with the idea that beta-oscillations help maintain cognitive sets.

Surprise About Sensory Event Timing Drives Cortical Transients in the Beta Frequency Band