Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to determine whether longitudinal changes in CT radiomic features (RFs) and systemic inflammatory indices outperform single-time-point assessment in predicting survival in advanced non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively acquired pretreatment (T0) and first disease assessment (T1) RFs and systemic inflammatory indices from a single-center cohort of stage IV NSCLC patients and computed their delta (Δ) variation as [(T1-T0)/T0]. RFs from the primary tumor were selected for building baseline-radiomic (RAD) and Δ-RAD scores using the linear combination of standardized predictors detected by LASSO Cox regression models. Cox models were generated using clinical features alone or combined with baseline and Δ blood parameters and integrated with baseline-RAD and Δ-RAD. All models were 3-fold cross-validated. A prognostic index (PI) of each model was tested to stratify overall survival (OS) through Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: We included 90 ICI-treated NSCLC patients (median age 70 y [IQR=42 to 85], 63 males). Δ-RAD outperformed baseline-RAD for predicting OS [c-index: 0.632 (95%CI: 0.628 to 0.636) vs. 0.605 (95%CI: 0.601 to 0.608) in the test splits]. Integrating longitudinal changes of systemic inflammatory indices and Δ-RAD with clinical data led to the best model performance [Integrated-Δ model, c-index: 0.750 (95% CI: 0.749 to 0.751) in training and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.715 to 0.721) in testing splits]. PI enabled significant OS stratification within all the models ( P -value <0.01), reaching the greatest discriminative ability in Δ models (high-risk group HR up to 7.37, 95% CI: 3.9 to 13.94, P <0.01). Conclusion: Δ-RAD improved OS prediction compared with single-time-point radiomic in advanced ICI-treated NSCLC. Integrating Δ-RAD with a longitudinal assessment of clinical and laboratory data further improved the prognostic performance.