Abstract INTRODUCTION Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual variability in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we used normative modeling to track individuals’ disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls ( n ≈ 58k). These models were used to calculate regional z scores in 3233 T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging time‐series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with z scores &lt; –1.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non‐imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change. DISCUSSION Individual patients’ atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC. Highlights Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time. Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans. The number of brain‐structure outliers increased over time in people with AD. Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD. People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.

Personalizing progressive changes to brain structure in Alzheimer's disease using normative modeling