Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a central concept in population biology and a key factor in sexual selection, yet why do most demographic models ignore sex-biases? Vital rates often vary between the sexes and across life history, but their relative contributions to ASR variation remain poorly understood--an essential step to evaluate sex ratio theories in the wild and inform conservation. Here we combine structured two-sex population models with individual-based mark-recapture data from an intensively monitored polygamous population of snowy plovers. We show that a strongly male-biased ASR is primarily driven by sex-specific survival of juveniles, rather than adults or dependent offspring. This provides empirical support for theories of unbiased sex allocation when sex-differences in survival arise after the period of parental investment. Importantly, a conventional model ignoring sex-biases significantly overestimated population viability. We suggest that sex-specific population models are essential to understand the population dynamics of sexual organisms: reproduction and population growth is most sensitive to perturbations in survival of the limiting sex. Overall, our study suggests that sex-biased early survival may contribute towards mating system evolution and population persistence, with implications for both sexual selection theory and biodiversity conservation.

Adult sex ratio bias in snowy plovers is driven by sex-specific early survival: implications for mating systems and population growth