Abstract We propose a Bayesian method for the classification of 16S rRNA metagenomic profiles of bacterial abundance, by introducing a Poisson-Dirichlet-Multinomial hierarchical model for the sequencing data, constructing a prior distribution from sample data, calculating the posterior distribution in closed form; and deriving an Optimal Bayesian Classifier (OBC). The proposed algorithm is compared to state-of-the-art classification methods for 16S rRNA metagenomic data, including Random Forests and the phylogeny-based Metaphyl algorithm, for varying sample size, classification difficulty, and dimensionality (number of OTUs), using both synthetic and real metagenomic data sets. The results demonstrate that the proposed OBC method, with either noninformative or constructed priors, is competitive or superior to the other methods. In particular, in the case where the ratio of sample size to dimensionality is small, it was observed that the proposed method can vastly outperform the others. Author summary Recent studies have highlighted the interplay between host genetics, gut microbes, and colorectal tumor initiation/progression. The characterization of microbial communities using metagenomic profiling has therefore received renewed interest. In this paper, we propose a method for classification, i.e., prediction of different outcomes, based on 16S rRNA metagenomic data. The proposed method employs a Bayesian approach, which is suitable for data sets with small ration of number of available instances to the dimensionality. Results using both synthetic and real metagenomic data show that the proposed method can outperform other state-of-the-art metagenomic classification algorithms.

Bayesian Classification of Microbial Communities Based on 16S rRNA Metagenomic Data