Abstract A persistent obstacle for constructing kinetic models of metabolism is uncertainty in the kinetic properties of enzymes. Currently, available methods for building kinetic models can cope indirectly with uncertainties by integrating data from different biological levels and origins into models. In this study, we use the recently proposed computational approach iSCHRUNK ( i n S ilico Approach to Ch aracterization and R eduction of Un certainty in the K inetic Models), which combines Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods and machine learning techniques, in the context of Bayesian inference. Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods allow us to exploit synergies between different data sources and generate a population of kinetic models that are consistent with the available data and physicochemical laws. The machine learning allows us to data-mine the a priori generated kinetic parameters together with the integrated datasets and derive posterior distributions of kinetic parameters consistent with the observed physiology. In this work, we used iSCHRUNK to address a design question: can we identify which are the kinetic parameters and what are their values that give rise to a desired metabolic behavior? Such information is important for a wide variety of studies ranging from biotechnology to medicine. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we performed Metabolic Control Analysis, computed the flux control coefficients of the xylose uptake (XTR), and identified parameters that ensure a rate improvement of XTR in a glucose-xylose co-utilizing S. cerevisiae strain. Our results indicate that only three kinetic parameters need to be accurately characterized to describe the studied physiology, and ultimately to design and control the desired responses of the metabolism. This framework paves the way for a new generation of methods that will systematically integrate the wealth of available omics data and efficiently extract the information necessary for metabolic engineering and synthetic biology decisions. Author Summary Kinetic models are the most promising tool for understanding the complex dynamic behavior of living cells. The primary goal of kinetic models is to capture the properties of the metabolic networks as a whole, and thus we need large-scale models for dependable in silico analyses of metabolism. However, uncertainty in kinetic parameters impedes the development of kinetic models, and uncertainty levels increase with the model size. Tools that will address the issues with parameter uncertainty and that will be able to reduce the uncertainty propagation through the system are therefore needed. In this work, we applied a method called iSCHRUNK that combines parameter sampling and machine learning techniques to characterize the uncertainties and uncover intricate relationships between the parameters of kinetic models and the responses of the metabolic network. The proposed method allowed us to identify a small number of parameters that determine the responses in the network regardless of the values of other parameters. As a consequence, in future studies of metabolism, it will be sufficient to explore a reduced kinetic space, and more comprehensive analyses of large-scale and genome-scale metabolic networks will be computationally tractable.

Uncertainty Reduction in Biochemical Kinetic Models: Enforcing Desired Model Properties