Abstract

In the context of global efforts to address climate change, research into regional carbon neutrality strategies has become especially critical. For developing countries and regions, scientifically and rationally assessing the paths for small-scale regional transformations under carbon neutrality imperatives is essential for the effective implementation of low-carbon transition measures. This study uses Chongming District in Shanghai, China, as a case study to construct a carbon emission and sink forecasting framework from a multi-dimensional natural-social perspective, facilitating the simulation and optimization of pathways for carbon neutrality transformation. The results indicate:(1)From 2000 to 2020, the total regional carbon emissions exhibited a rising trend, while the total carbon sink initially declined then increased, located in the potential enhancement zone, and has significant potential and space for carbon neutrality development.(2) Enhanced management of ecological spaces and land use planning led to notable increases in carbon sink. Strategic measures such as emission and consumption reductions, alongside energy transitions, effectively controlled carbon emission growth and facilitated comprehensive decarbonization. (3) Under the combinations of ecological priority with enhanced control and balanced development with enhanced control, the region can achieve carbon neutrality, showcasing the effective role of policy regulation in facilitating high-quality carbon-neutral transformations. (4)Effective ecosystem management and robust reduction and transition strategies enable carbon-neutral transformations at the county level, offering a model and methodological support for other developing regions facing the twin challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability.