We present quantitative motivations and assessments of various proposed and ongoing directions to further improving yields and target gain of igniting indirect-drive implosions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). These include increasing compression and confinement time, improving hohlraum and ablator efficiency, and further increasing peak power and laser energy. 1D hydroscaled simulations, augmented by analytic 1D theory, have been used to project yield improvements for each of these implosion optimization tracks, normalized to the best current performing 4 MJ shot. At current NIF capabilities of 2.2 MJ, 450 TW, we project several paths could reach 15 MJ yield levels. We also expect several key implosion physics questions will be addressed in attempting to reach this yield level. These include demonstrating to what extent lower adiabat designs leading to higher compression will increase gain and efficiency, and whether we can reduce residual kinetic energy and ablator-fuel mix that is probably limiting the current burn-up fraction. For an envisaged NIF upgrade to EL = 3 MJ at fixed 450 TW peak power, scaling capsule size and fuel thicknesses faster than pure hydroscaling should allow for yields that could reach up to 60–80 MJ, depending on the efficiency gains realized in increasing deuterium-tritium fuel thickness, reducing hohlraum losses, and switching to lower Z ablators. The laser-plasma instability and beam transmission scaling in these larger hohlraums is shown to be favorable if the spot size is increased with hohlraum scale.

What next: Further implosion space exploration on the path to NIF extended yield capability