Abstract

Introduction A clear immune correlate of protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has not been defined. We explored antibody, B-cell, and T-cell responses to the third-dose vaccine and relationship to incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Adults in a prospective cohort provided blood samples at day 0, day 14, and 10 months after the third-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Participants self-reported incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Plasma anti–SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) and spike-subunit-1 and spike-subunit-2 antibodies were measured. A sub-study assessed SARS-CoV-2–specific plasma and memory B-cell and memory T-cell responses in peripheral blood mononuclear cells by enzyme-linked immunospot. Comparative analysis between participants who developed incident infection and uninfected participants utilised non-parametric t-tests, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazard ratios. Results Of the 132 participants, 47 (36%) reported incident SARS-CoV-2 infection at a median 16.5 (16.25–21) weeks after the third-dose vaccination. RBD titres and B-cell responses, but not T-cell responses, increased after the third-dose vaccine. Whereas no significant difference in day 14 antibody titres or T-cell responses was observed between participants with and without incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, RBD memory B-cell frequencies were significantly higher in those who did not develop infection [10.0% (4.5%–16.0%) versus 4.9% (1.6%–9.3%), p = 0.01]. RBD titres and memory B-cell frequencies remained significantly higher at 10 months than day 0 levels (p < 0.01). Discussion Robust antibody and B-cell responses persisted at 10 months following the third-dose vaccination. Higher memory B-cell frequencies, rather than antibody titres or T-cell responses, predicted protection from subsequent infection, identifying memory B cells as a correlate of protection.