Abstract

Considering that the road network shares traffic flow as a system, this study aimed to predict the network-level flexible pavement performance, using an optimised artificial neural network (ANN) approach to predict the pavement performance of each individual road, and the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm to determine the weight coefficients of roads. ANNs were developed to predict distress conditions, functional conditions and structural performance using the inputs of the pavement age and structural, traffic and climatic conditions. ANNs were trained with Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program data, and almost all the coefficient of determination values between ANN outputs and measured results are larger than 0.9. This ANN approach was optimised by establishing grey models to provide predictive short-term performance data for training ANNs, and employing Kalman Filter to modify the long-term performance prediction. Applications in typical LTPP sections validated the effectiveness of the optimisation method. This study used the reduction in road network capacity due to the assumed unavailability of a certain road to quantify its role (weight coefficient), which was calculated using the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm. This network-level performance prediction approach was applied in a 25-expressways network in Shanghai, which validated the good generalisation capabilities of ANNs and feasibility of the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm.