Abstract

Abstract Aims To estimate the association between long‐term changes in frailty and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and to evaluate the effect of preventing the worsening of frailty on the risk of T2DM. Methods We included 348 205 participants free of baseline T2DM and with frailty phenotype (FP) data from the UK Biobank; among them, 36 175 had at least one follow‐up assessment. According to their FP score, participants were grouped into nonfrailty, prefrailty and frailty groups. Frailty assessed at baseline and at follow‐up was used to derive the trajectory of frailty (ΔFP). Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Compared with those in the nonfrailty group at baseline, the HRs of T2DM for the prefrailty and frailty groups were 1.38 (95% CI 1.33–1.43) and 1.69 (95% CI 1.59–1.79), respectively (both p < 0.001), in the multivariable‐adjusted model. During a median follow‐up of 5.4 years after the final assessment, data for 472 T2DM patients were recorded. A 1‐point increase in the final FP was associated with a 25% (95% CI 1.14–1.38; p < 0.001) increased risk of T2DM. For the trajectory of frailty, each 0.5‐point/year increase in ΔFP was associated with a 52% (95% CI 1.18–1.97; p < 0.001) greater risk of T2DM, independent of the FP score at baseline. Compared with those that remained in the nonfrailty group, the greatest risk of T2DM over time was prefrailty aggravation (HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.00–4.58; p < 0.001). Using the frailty index did not materially change the results. Conclusions Long‐term changes in frailty were associated with the risk of incident T2DM, irrespective of baseline frailty status. Preventing the worsening of frailty may reduce T2DM risk.