Aim of our study is to establish models for predicting the number of migratory wild birds based on the meteorological data. From 136 species of wild birds, which have been observed at Futatsudate in Miyazaki, Japan, from 2008 to 2016, we selected the potential high-risk species, which can introduce highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Miyazaki; we defined them as “risky birds”. We then performed regression analysis to model the relationship between the number of risky birds and meteorological data. We selected 10 wild bird species as risky birds: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Northern pintail (Anas acuta), Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), Eurasian teal (Anas crecca), Common pochard (Aythya ferina), Eurasian coot (Fulica atra), Northern shoveler (Anas clypeata), Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula), and Herring gull (Larus argentatus). We succeeded in identifying five meteorological factors associated with their migration: station pressure, mean value of global solar radiation, minimum of daily maximum temperature, days with thundering, and days with daily hours of daylight under 0.1 h. We could establish some models for predicting the number of risky birds based only on the published meteorological data, without manual counting. Dynamics of migratory wild birds has relevance to the risk of HPAI outbreak, so our data could contribute to save the cost and time in strengthening preventive measures against the epidemics.

Identification of meteorological factors affecting migration of wild birds into miyazaki and its relation to circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus