Abstract

The special geographical environment and functions of seaports make them extremely vulnerable to natural threats, notably tropical cyclones (TCs). Existing methods to quantify disruption to seaports may not offer a holistic understanding of relationship between the disaster data and the complex composition of the seaport. To resolve this issue, this study introduces a new framework combining physics-based modeling and influence diagrams to analyze the potential disruptions faced by seaports during TCs. To assess the validity of the proposed framework, the Haikou Port is used as a testbed. Six different historical typhoon scenarios are used to compare between the real operation state and the produced results. Findings reveal that the new framework is effective in capturing the decline in port operational capacity during TCs, particularly for seaports like Haikou that demonstrate high resilience to TCs. Overall, this study presents a valuable perspective for assessing and forecasting seaport disruptions facing TCs.