Background The A allele of rs373863828 in CREB3 regulatory factor is associated with high Body Mass Index, but lower odds of type 2 diabetes. These associations have been replicated elsewhere, but to date all studies have been cross-sectional. Our aims were (1) to describe the development of type 2 diabetes and change in fasting glucose between 2010 and 2018 among a longitudinal cohort of adult Samoans without type 2 diabetes or who were not using diabetes medications at baseline, and (2) to examine associations between fasting glucose rate-of-change (mmol/L per year) and the A allele of rs373863828. Methods We describe and test differences in fasting glucose, the development of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, age, smoking status, physical activity, urbanicity of residence, and household asset scores between 2010 and 2018 among a cohort of n = 401 adult Samoans, selected to have a ~2:2:1 ratio of GG:AG: AA rs373863828 genotypes. Multivariate linear regression was used to test whether fasting glucose rate-of-change was associated with rs373863828 genotype, and other baseline variables. Results By 2018, fasting glucose and BMI significantly increased among all genotype groups, and a substantial portion of the sample developed type 2 diabetes mellitus. The A allele was associated with a lower fasting glucose rate-of-change (β = −0.05 mmol/L/year per allele, p = 0.058 among women; β = −0.004 mmol/L/year per allele, p = 0.863 among men), after accounting for baseline variables. Mean fasting glucose and mean BMI increased over an eight-year period and a substantial number of individuals developed type 2 diabetes by 2018. However, fasting glucose rate-of-change, and type 2 diabetes development was lower among females with AG and AA genotypes. Conclusions Further research is needed to understand the effect of the A allele on fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes development. Based on our observations that other risk factors increased over time, we advocate for the continued promotion for diabetes prevention and treatment programming, and the reduction of modifiable risk factors, in this setting.

Associations between fasting glucose rate-of-change and the missense variant, rs373863828, in an adult Samoan cohort