Abstract

Purpose To refine stage and prognostic group for human papillomavirus (HPV) –related nonmetastatic (M0) oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Methods All patients with nonmetastatic (M0) p16-confirmed OPC treated with radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy from 2000 to 2010 were included. Overall survival (OS) was compared among TNM stages for patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPC separately. For HPV-related OPC, recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) derived new RPA stages objectively. Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) to derive AHR stages. The performance of survival prediction of RPA stage and AHR stage was assessed against the current seventh edition TNM stages. Prognostic groups were derived by RPA, combining RPA stage and nonanatomic factors. Results The cohort comprised 573 patients with HPV-related OPC and 237 patients with HPV-unrelated OPC, with a median follow-up of 5.1 years. Lower 5-year OS with higher TNM stage was evident for patients with HPV-unrelated OPC (stage I, II, III, and IV 5-year OS: 70%, 58%, 50%, and 30%, respectively; P = .004) but not for patients with HPV-related OPC (stage I, II, III, and IV 5-year OS: 88%, 78%, 71%, and 74%, respectively; P = .56). RPA divided HPV-related OPC into RPA-I (T1-3N0-2b), RPA-II (T1-3N2c), and RPA-III (T4 or N3; 5-year OS: 82%, 76%, and 54%, respectively; P < .001). AHR also yielded a valid classification, but RPA stage demonstrated better survival prediction. A further RPA (including RPA stage, age, and smoking pack-years [PYs]) derived the following four valid prognostic groups for survival: group I (T1-3N0-N2c_≤ 20 PY), group II (T1-3N0-N2c_> 20 PY), group III (T4 or N3_age ≤ 70), and group IVA (T4 or N3_age > 70; 5-year OS: 89%, 64%, 57%, and 40%, respectively; P < .001). Conclusion An RPA-based TNM stage grouping (stage I/II/III: T1-3N0-N2b/T1-3N2c/T4 or N3, with M1 as stage IV) is proposed for HPV-related OPC as a result of significantly improved survival prediction compared with the seventh edition TNM, and prognostication is further improved by an RPA-based prognostic grouping within the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control TNM framework for HPV-related OPC.