Abstract

• Limited information on likely supply and spatial yield of bioenergy crops exists for the UK. Here, productivities are reported of poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), using data from a large 49-site yield trial network. • A partial least-squares regression technique was used to upscale actual field trial observations across England and Wales. Spatial productivity was then assessed under different land-use scenarios. • Mean modelled yields ranged between 4.9 and 10.7 oven-dry tonnes (odt) ha−1 yr−1. Yields were generally higher in willow than in poplar, reflecting the susceptibility of older poplar genotypes to rust and their tendency for single stem dominance. Replacing 10% of arable land, 20% of improved grassland and 100% of set-aside grassland in England and Wales with the three most productive genotypes would yield 13 Modt of biomass annually (supplying 7% of UK electricity production or 48% of UK combined heat and power (CHP) production). • Results show existing SRC genotypes have the immediate potential to be an important component of a mixed portfolio of renewables and that, in future, as new and improved genotypes become available, higher yields could extend this potential further.