Abstract

Hydropower generation is influenced by various factors such as precipitation, temperature, and installed capacity, with hydrometeorological factors exhibiting significant temporal variability. This study proposes a hydropower generation forecasting method based on Transformer and SE-Attention for different provinces. In the model, the outputs of the Transformer and SE-Attention modules are fed into an LSTM layer to capture long-term data dependencies. The SE-Attention module is reintroduced to enhance the model’s focus on important temporal features, and a linear layer maps the hidden state of the last time step to the final output. The proposed Transformer-LSTM-SE model was tested using provincial hydropower generation data from Yunnan, Sichuan, and Chongqing. The experimental results demonstrate that this model achieves high accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term hydropower forecasting at the provincial level, with an average accuracy improvement of 33.79% over the LSTM model and 24.30% over the Transformer-LSTM model.