Abstract

Abstract Aims This study aimed to identify the distinct change trajectories of the Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) over time and to investigate their associations with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Materials and Methods This study included 52 394 participants from the prospective project, the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China‐PAR). The CVAI was calculated using measures of age, body mass index, waist circumference, triglycerides and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. Latent mixture modelling was conducted to fit distinct trajectory patterns. The logistic regression model was applied to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of T2DM with various CVAI trajectory patterns. Results Four distinct CVAI trajectory patterns were identified: low‐increasing, moderate‐increasing, moderate high‐increasing and high‐increasing. Compared with low‐increasing CVAI, participants with moderate‐increasing (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.49–2.00), moderate high‐increasing (3.48, 3.01–4.03) and high‐increasing CVAI (5.50, 4.67–6.47) had a significantly increased risk of T2DM. Similar trajectory patterns were identified in both men and women. The ORs (95% CI) for moderate‐increasing, moderate high‐increasing and high‐increasing groups were 3.28 (2.56–4.19), 7.85 (6.09–10.13) and 13.21 (9.98–17.49) in women respectively, and 1.20 (0.99–1.45), 2.18 (1.82–2.62) and 3.60 (2.93–4.43) in men respectively, when compared to the low‐increasing CVAI group. Further, significant effect modifications for age, smoking and physical activity (all P interaction <0.05) were observed in the relationship between CVAI trajectory patterns and T2DM. Conclusions Initially high and persistently elevated CVAI is significantly associated with an increased risk of T2DM, with a particular focus on women, younger people, nonsmokers and physically inactive individuals. Continuous monitoring of CVAI levels will benefit effective identification, early intervention and management of individuals at high risk of T2DM.