Background Frailty is a clinical syndrome generally associated with a greater risk for adverse outcomes such as falls, disability, institutionalization, and death. Cognition and dementia have already been considered as components of frailty, but the role of frailty as a possible determinant of dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD) has been poorly investigated. We estimated the predictive role of frailty syndrome on incident dementia and its subtypes in a nondemented, Italian, older population. Methods We evaluated 2581 individuals recruited from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging sample population consisting of 5632 subjects aged 65 to 84 years and with a 3.9‐year median follow‐up. A phenotype of frailty according to a modified measurement of Cardiovascular Health Study criteria was operationalized. Dementia, AD, and VaD were classified using current published criteria. Results Over a 3.5‐year follow‐up, 65 of 2581 (2.5%) older subjects, 16 among 252 frail individuals (6.3%), of which 9 were affected by VaD (3.6%), developed overall dementia. In a proportional hazards model, frailty syndrome was associated with a significantly increased risk of overall dementia (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.85; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–3.40) and, in particular, VaD (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.16–7.17). The risk of AD or other types of dementia did not significantly change in frail individuals in comparison with subjects without frailty syndrome. Conclusion In our large population‐based sample, frailty syndrome was a short‐term predictor of overall dementia and VaD.
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