Ecological ApplicationsVolume 11, Issue 4 p. 1027-1045 Issues in Ecology — Technical Report WATER IN A CHANGING WORLD Robert B. Jackson, Robert B. Jackson Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA Address for correspondence: Department of Biology, Phytotron Building, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorStephen R. Carpenter, Stephen R. Carpenter Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USASearch for more papers by this authorClifford N. Dahm, Clifford N. Dahm Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 USASearch for more papers by this authorDiane M. McKnight, Diane M. McKnight Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 USASearch for more papers by this authorRobert J. Naiman, Robert J. Naiman School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USASearch for more papers by this authorSandra L. Postel, Sandra L. Postel Center for Global Water Policy, 107 Larkspur Drive, Amherst, Massachusetts 01002 USASearch for more papers by this authorSteven W. Running, Steven W. Running School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USASearch for more papers by this author Robert B. Jackson, Robert B. Jackson Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA Address for correspondence: Department of Biology, Phytotron Building, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorStephen R. Carpenter, Stephen R. Carpenter Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USASearch for more papers by this authorClifford N. Dahm, Clifford N. Dahm Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 USASearch for more papers by this authorDiane M. McKnight, Diane M. McKnight Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 USASearch for more papers by this authorRobert J. Naiman, Robert J. Naiman School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USASearch for more papers by this authorSandra L. Postel, Sandra L. Postel Center for Global Water Policy, 107 Larkspur Drive, Amherst, Massachusetts 01002 USASearch for more papers by this authorSteven W. Running, Steven W. Running School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USASearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 August 2001 https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[1027:WIACW]2.0.CO;2Citations: 594 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract Renewable fresh water comprises a tiny fraction of the global water pool but is the foundation for life in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The benefits to humans of renewable fresh water include water for drinking, irrigation, and industrial uses, for production of fish and waterfowl, and for such instream uses as recreation, transportation, and waste disposal. In the coming century, climate change and a growing imbalance among freshwater supply, consumption, and population will alter the water cycle dramatically. Many regions of the world are already limited by the amount and quality of available water. In the next 30 yr alone, accessible runoff is unlikely to increase more than 10%, but the earth's population is projected to rise by approximately one-third. Unless the efficiency of water use rises, this imbalance will reduce freshwater ecosystem services, increase the number of aquatic species facing extinction, and further fragment wetlands, rivers, deltas, and estuaries. Based on the scientific evidence currently available, we conclude that: (1) over half of accessible freshwater runoff globally is already appropriated for human use; (2) more than 1 × 109 people currently lack access to clean drinking water and almost 3 × 109 people lack basic sanitation services; (3) because the human population will grow faster than increases in the amount of accessible fresh water, per capita availability of fresh water will decrease in the coming century; (4) climate change will cause a general intensification of the earth's hydrological cycle in the next 100 yr, with generally increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, and occurrence of storms, and significant changes in biogeochemical processes influencing water quality; (5) at least 90% of total water discharge from U.S. rivers is strongly affected by channel fragmentation from dams, reservoirs, interbasin diversions, and irrigation; and (6) globally, 20% of freshwater fish species are threatened or extinct, and freshwater species make up 47% of all animals federally endangered in the United States. 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