Polygenic Scores Predict the Development of Alcohol and Nicotine Use Problems from Adolescence through Young Adulthood

Abstract

Abstract Objective Molecular genetic studies of alcohol and nicotine have identified many genome-wide loci. We examined the predictive utility of drinking and smoking polygenic scores (PGS) for alcohol and nicotine use from late childhood to early adulthood, substance-specific versus broader-liability PGS effects, and if PGS performance varied between consumption versus pathological use. Methods Latent growth curve models with structured residuals were used to assess the predictive utility of drinks per week and regular smoking PGS for measures of alcohol and nicotine consumption and problematic use from age 14 to 34. PGSs were generated from the largest discovery sample for alcohol and nicotine use to date (i.e., GSCAN), and examined for associations with alcohol and nicotine use in the Minnesota Twin Family Study (N=3225). Results The drinking PGS was a significant predictor of age 14 problematic alcohol use and increases in problematic use during young adulthood. The smoking PGS was a significant predictor for all nicotine use outcomes. After adjusting for the effects of both PGSs, the smoking PGS demonstrated incremental predictive utility for most alcohol use outcomes and remained a significant predictor of nicotine use trajectories. Conclusions Higher PGS for drinking and smoking were associated with more problematic levels of substance use longitudinally. The smoking PGS seems to capture both nicotine-specific and non-specific genetic liability for substance use, and may index genetic risk for broader externalizing behavior. Validation of PGS within longitudinal designs may have important clinical implications should future studies support the clinical utility of PGS for substance use disorders.